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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.